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Yankees vs. Brewers prediction: MLB picks, odds, bets for Friday



When spring training broke in late March, the Yankees and Brewers probably couldn’t haven’t imagined that their starters in Friday’s inter-league series opener would be two of their better pitchers.

But a month into the season, New York’s Luis Gil and Milwaukee’s Colin Rea are just that, and for pitching staffs that have needed pick-me-ups in the absence of two former Cy Young winners, it couldn’t be a more pleasant surprise.

The two division leaders open a three-game weekend set Friday with Gil and Rea each making their fourth starts of the season.

Let’s take a look at why targeting the total in this matchup makes a lot of sense.

Yankees vs. Brewers odds

Team Moneyline Runs Line Total
Yankees -130 -1.5 (+136) o8.5 (-110)
Brewers +110 +1.5 (-162) u8.5 (-110)
Odds via DraftKings

Yankees vs. Brewers prediction

Gil wasn’t even expected to make the Yankees’ rotation this season, but when ace Gerrit Cole was shut down in the middle of camp with an elbow injury, he was named the fifth starter after an excellent spring.

Rea, on the other hand, became the default No. 2 for the Brewers behind new ace Freddy Peralta after Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Gil has yet to give up more than three hits in any of his four starts and he’s in the top 1% in several advanced metrics, including xBA (.105), xSLG (.129), hard-hit rate (25%) and K% (34.5).

Hitters just can’t square up on his electric stuff.

The problem, however, has been walks with Gil (20.2 BB%, bottom 2%), but against the Rays last Sunday, his command was much better with just three free passes.

Rea is Gil’s antithesis. There’s nothing electric about him. He just gets outs for the Brewers with complete control of his five-pitch repertoire.

As a pivotal rotation piece for the Brewers, Colin Rea brings a 2.08 ERA into Friday’s matchup with the Yankees. Getty Images

The Brewers return home after a successful 5-2 road trip against St. Louis and Pittsburgh.

After a torrid stretch in which they tied a franchise mark by scoring seven-plus runs in six straight games, they had trouble crossing the plate against their divisional foes, with three or fewer runs scored in five of the seven games.

They were able to win on the road with solid starting pitching and a bullpen that has been the best in baseball since April 12 with a 1.43 combined ERA.

This season, despite losing All-Star closer Devin Williams for several months, Milwaukee relievers have pitched more innings than any other MLB team and have the lowest ERA in the league.

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Yankees vs. Brewers pick

With the exception of Juan Soto, the AL East-leading Yankees have been inconsistent up and down the lineup, although Aaron Judge has shown signs this week of breaking out of a season-long slump.

And recently, Milwaukee has really scuffled on offense, hitting just .205 over the last seven games, MLB’s fifth-worst average in that span.

With neither team hitting well, with two steady starters toeing the slab, with two of the top six bullpens in baseball, and with the Yankees only arriving into Milwaukee after midnight, the under is definitely in play, even in the bandbox known as American Family Field.

The play: Yankees-Brewers Under 8.5 runs (-110, FanDuel)

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