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Valspar Championship 2023 betting guide: Expert PGA predictions and best bets

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The 2023 Valspar Championship serves as the last of a series of consecutive PGA tournaments in Florida, then we’re off to Texas for two weeks as we count down to the Masters in just 22 days. The Sunshine State swing has been a brutal lineup of courses and championships. From the Bear Claw to the Snake Pit, these four events provide us with a seemingly-endless amount of drama.

Congratulations to any of you who read my newsletter. Read The Line enjoyed another big win for the third week in a row. Check out our recent hits:

  • Honda Classic with Chris Kirk (+3000)
  • HSBC Women’s Championship with Jin Young Ko (+2000)
  • PLAYERS Championship with world’s new #1 Scottie Scheffler (+1100)

If you read this column each week, you should subscribe to Read The Line. If you’re reading this on Wednesday, there’s still time to check it out before tomorrow’s PGA TOUR starts. Speaking of that, let’s get to the Valspar Championship odds, then discuss the tournament and course in greater detail, and last but of course not least, list our best bets and predictions. 

Valspar Championship 2023: Betting odds

Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook and DraftKings Nation

Golfer Winner Top 5 Top 10
Justin Thomas +1100 +275 +140
Jordan Spieth +1200 +320 +165
Sam Burns +1600 +400 +200
Matt Fitzpatrick +1800 +400 +200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500 +550 +260
Keegan Bradley +2500 +550 +280
Justin Rose +2500 +550 +275
Adam Hadwin +2800 +600 +300
Denny McCarthy +3000 +650 +330
Wyndham Clark +3500 +750 +360
Justin Suh +3500 +800 +360
Davis Riley +3500 +800 +360
Brian Harman +3500 +750 +360
Maverick McNealy +4000 +850 +400
Gary Woodland +4000 +900 +400
K.H. Lee +5000 +1000 +500
Ben Griffin +5000 +1000 +500
Brandon Wu +5500 +1100 +500
Victor Perez +6000 +1200 +550
J.T. Poston +6000 +1200 +550
Byeong Hun An +6000 +1200 +600
Stephan Jaeger +6500 +1200 +600
Jhonattan Vegas +6500 +1200 +600
Aaron Rai +6500 +1200 +550
Will Gordon +7000 +1400 +600
Taylor Moore +7500 +1400 +650
Nick Taylor +7500 +1400 +650
Joel Dahmen +7500 +1400 +650
Garrick Higgo +7500 +1400 +650
Beau Hossler +7500 +1400 +650
Robby Shelton +8000 +1600 +750
Nate Lashley +8000 +1400 +700
Webb Simpson +9000 +1800 +800
Trey Mullinax +9000 +1800 +850
Sam Ryder +9000 +1600 +750
Matthew NeSmith +9000 +1800 +800
Luke List +9000 +1800 +800
Ben Martin +9000 +1800 +800
Alex Smalley +9000 +1800 +800
Akshay Bhatia +9000 +1800 +800
Tyler Duncan +10000 +1800 +850
S.H. Kim +10000 +2000 +850
Ryan Gerard +10000 +1800 +850
David Lingmerth +10000 +2000 +850
Pierceson Coody +11000 +2000 +900
Patrick Rodgers +11000 +2200 +900
Ludvig Aberg +11000 +2000 +900
Lee Hodges +11000 +2200 +900
Joseph Bramlett +11000 +2200 +900
Eric Cole +11000 +2000 +900
Ben Taylor +11000 +2200 +900
Sam Stevens +13000 +2500 +1100
Nick Hardy +13000 +2500 +1100
Mark Hubbard +13000 +2500 +1100
Kramer Hickok +13000 +2500 +1000
Dylan Frittelli +13000 +2500 +1100
Cameron Champ +13000 +2800 +1200
Adam Schenk +13000 +2200 +1000
Troy Merritt +15000 +2800 +1200
Michael Kim +15000 +3000 +1200
Kevin Kisner +15000 +2800 +1100
Erik Van Rooyen +15000 +2800 +1200
Dylan Wu +15000 +3000 +1200
David Lipsky +15000 +2500 +1100
Chad Ramey +15000 +2800 +1200
Carson Young +15000 +3000 +1200
Russell Knox +18000 +3500 +1200
MJ Daffue +18000 +3000 +1200
Matt Wallace +18000 +3500 +1400
Martin Laird +18000 +3500 +1200
Luke Donald +18000 +3500 +1400
Harry Higgs +18000 +3500 +1400
Harry Hall +18000 +3000 +1200
Greyson Sigg +18000 +3500 +1200
Chesson Hadley +18000 +3500 +1400
Charley Hoffman +18000 +3000 +1200
Austin Smotherman +18000 +3500 +1400
Zach Johnson +20000 +3500 +1400
Vincent Norrman +20000 +3500 +1600
Stewart Cink +20000 +3500 +1400
Patton Kizzire +20000 +3500 +1400
Nico Echavarria +20000 +3500 +1400
Kevin Streelman +20000 +3500 +1400
Adam Long +20000 +3500 +1400
Tano Goya +25000 +4500 +1800
Ryan Moore +25000 +4000 +1600
Peter Malnati +25000 +4000 +1600
Matti Schmid +25000 +4000 +1600
Matthias Schwab +25000 +4000 +1600
Lucas Glover +25000 +4000 +1600
James Hahn +25000 +4000 +1600
Henrik Norlander +25000 +4000 +1600
Erik Barnes +25000 +4500 +1800
Doug Ghim +25000 +4000 +1600
Carl Yuan +25000 +4000 +1600
Austin Eckroat +25000 +4500 +1800
Augusto Nunez +25000 +4000 +1600
Andrew Novak +25000 +4500 +1800
Hank Lebioda +25000 +4000 +1600
Zecheng Dou +30000 +5500 +2200
Ryan Armour +30000 +5000 +2000
Michael Thompson +30000 +5000 +1800
Kevin Tway +30000 +5000 +1800
Justin Lower +30000 +4500 +1800
John Vanderlaan +30000 +4500 +1800
Harrison Endycott +30000 +5500 +2000
Cole Hammer +30000 +5000 +2000
Doc Redman +35000 +6000 +2200
Chez Reavie +35000 +6000 +2200
Brice Garnett +35000 +6000 +2200
Brian Stuard +35000 +6500 +2200
Austin Cook +35000 +6000 +2200
Nick Gabrelcik +35000 +6500 +2500
Tyson Alexander +40000 +7000 +2500
Robert Streb +40000 +7500 +2800
Paul Haley II +40000 +7000 +2500
Kevin Roy +40000 +6500 +2500
Jason Dufner +40000 +7000 +2500
Brent Grant +40000 +7000 +2500
Zac Blair +50000 +8000 +3000
Wesley Bryan +50000 +8000 +3500
Rory Sabbatini +50000 +8000 +3000
Martin Trainer +50000 +9000 +3500
Kyle Westmoreland +50000 +9000 +3500
Jimmy Walker +50000 +8000 +3000
Jim Herman +50000 +8000 +3000
Cody Gribble +50000 +9000 +3500
Trevor Werbylo +60000 +10000 +3500
Trevor Cone +60000 +11000 +4000
Scott Harrington +60000 +10000 +3500
Ryan Brehm +60000 +11000 +4000
Richy Werenski +60000 +10000 +3500
Michael Gligic +60000 +11000 +4000
Kyle Stanley +60000 +9000 +3500
Kelly Kraft +60000 +10000 +3500
J.B. Holmes +60000 +11000 +4000
Greg Koch +60000 +11000 +4000
Brandon Matthews +60000 +10000 +4000
Andrew Landry +60000 +10000 +3500
Max McGreevy +80000 +13000 +4500

Valspar Championship: Tournament and course details

The final and fourth leg of the Florida swing takes 85 of the guys from TPC Sawgrass down Interstate 4 to Palm Harbor near Tampa Bay to the Innisbrook Resort. The Valspar Championship has been contested in different months on the schedule, but always played at the Copperhead Course. The par-71’s unique layout extends to 7,340 yards.

There are five par-3s ranging from 195-235 yards. You must be equal to the task with your iron game to excel here. These five holes combined play 0.55 strokes over par. Considering they consist of 28% of the holes these guys will play this week, that’s significant. As I develop this week’s winning narrative, iron play is easily the frontrunner for Best Skill.

The Copperhead Course is much like a slap in the face considering the scorecard annually plays as one of top 8 toughest tests on the PGA TOUR. The players hit substantially less than the Tour average of Greens in Regulation (GIR). This puts pressure on the short game and close range putting. The fabled Snake Pit (Holes 16, 17, and 18) is one thing, but overall the contenders need incredible accuracy to avoid being the Best Supporting Player.

In the GCSAA Report (Course Conditions), the Superintendent was sure to mention they increased the rough length by 0.75”. Sam Burns won the last two Valspars at 17 under par. Scores like that force tournament officials to make changes. More rough at Innisbrook is a significant one. Speaking of recent champions, let’s take a closer look at who they are and how they built a blueprint to winning.

Valspar Championship 2023: Winning trends

  • The average winning score over the last five years is 13 under par. Extend the range to ten years and the average drops to 11 under par.
  • Those past champions’ pre-tournament odds are interesting. Six of the last 10 started the event under +3300, yet the average in that decade is +6600 (66-1). This shows us there have been some long shots who took home the title as well.
  • Iron play is the big indicator at Innisbrook. With 11 dogleg tee shot shots over 13 holes, players are forced to hit their drive in specific landing zones. Those layups make this a proximity contest with a mid and long iron. Burns, Casey, Spieth, and Schwartzel are all great approach players. Each gained five strokes on average against the field the week they won.
  • With so many forced layups off the tee, and smaller sized greens (5,822 square/feet average) these guys will need serious short game skill to contend. Whether they are scrambling for birdie on the par 5s, or saving par on another hole, Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG:ARG) helps you separate yourself. In the last ten years, winners have lost strokes off the tee 50% of the time while they have all gained an average of 2.7 strokes around the green.
  • Putting can be a powerful trait on certain courses. Last week, we saw how it helped those at the top contend or collapse. The Copperhead Course is one of the toughest on Tour putting inside five feet from the hole. Whether you are getting up and down, or just securing a short birdie putt, these greens are demanding. Pick a great putter this week; sorry JT!

There’s 13 holes that have a bogey rate over 15%. Conversely, only six share a birdie rate above the 15% line. Of course the cutline average is nearly two over par (+1.8) for the last ten years. Attacking Innisbrook takes patience. There’s a specific recipe off the tee followed by a pressure filled formula for hitting the greens. We want players who can avoid bogeys as often as they increase their opportunities to score (BoB%).

Burns built his leads through par-5 scoring. Those four holes are the best birdie opportunities with an average scoring rate of 31%. Similar to last week, I want players who have shown great recent form. This is not a course where you find yourself. Search for your swing and you’ll be heading home on Friday. Due to the demands of the course and possible PLAYERS fatigue, I kept my card tight.

Best bet to win: Justin Suh (+3700 FanDuel)

Justin Suh hasn’t missed a cut on tour since October. The young Korn Ferry Tour star is really starting to find his place on the PGA TOUR. In his last three starts, he has finished 5th (Honda), 24th (API), and 6th (PLAYERS). Justin hasn’t finished outside the top 40 in his last five tournaments. An impressive ball striker, his BoB% is ranked eighth in the field. I believe his current play continues, and he more than contends this weekend.

Best bet to finish in the top 20: Justin Rose (+130 on FanDuel)

To go along with our outright prediction, I have two potent placement bets. The first is a top 20 for Justin Rose. I watched Justin on Tour in 2022 and saw the work he was putting in. In the fall, I wrote several times how 2023 would be a big year for him. With a win and a 6th place last week at the PLAYERS, we are definitely riding this former world #1 ranked player.

Best bet to finish in the top 40: Ben Griffin (+100 on FanDuel)

The second placement pick is Ben Griffin to finish in the top 40. Ben has the perfect combination of driver skill and short game touch. Similar to Suh, this rookie has been hot in 2023. In seven starts since January 1, Ben only finished outside the top 35 one time. Last week, he impressed everyone on a big stage. He’s incredible on positional courses and gaining over a stroke per start with his putter.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations for the LPGA and PGA TOUR please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.

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