Connect with us

Golf

PGA TOUR Golf Sleepers: 4 Valspar Championship Longshots

Published

on

The final leg of the Florida Swing brings us to Palm Harbor, Florida for the 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. Last week’s Sleepers article identified Justin Suh as a top-10 finisher and Kramer Hickok as a minimum-priced cut-maker from the $6K range on Draft Kings. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. 

The betting trends suggest course history can be sticky at the Valspar Championship, with Sam Burns and Paul Casey both successfully defending their titles since 2018. Even still, this event has produced four winners beyond 80-1 opening outright odds over the last 10 years, and especially with no World No. 1 in the field this week, it’s a good opportunity to take a chance on some longshots.

Click on odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

$1,050 BOnus

Exclusive Special

BetMGM Exclusive $50 Bonus after First Bet

$1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets 

March Matchups Special – See BETMGM Review

Use Bonus Code: PLAYBONUS50

COURSE INTRODUCTION

Standing at 7,340 yards, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort presents a unique test on the PGA TOUR schedule, as its presence of five par-3s makes the course play much longer than the scorecard yardage might suggest. To further that point, it features heavy rough and some of the most narrow fairways on TOUR. With many tight doglegs, players have found it best to club down off-the-tee, as keeping the ball in the fairway is the best way to generate scoring opportunities at this course. Top ball-strikers – particularly from beyond 175 yards – with familiarity around Bermuda greens are best suited to attack this course.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my Valspar Championship preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Valspar Championship picks, with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

PGA TOUR GOLF SLEEPERS: VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP

From a golf betting perspective, we’ve seen a steady mix of longshots and mid-tier players win this event over the years, so with no Scheffler or Rahm in town to assert their dominance, there is a path for longshots to win a this event.

In terms of DFS, there is noticeably less depth in this field compared to the most recent Designated events, so while I’ve gravitated to more of a balanced build, it’s crucial to land on the right salary savers this week.

Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 Valspar Championship. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Sam Ryder (, $7,300)

Former Valspar Champion, Adam Hadwin, drew comparisons between the types of tee shots demanded at TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook Resort when interviewed about his cross-over success at both events after THE PLAYERS Championship. Hadwin happened to finish No. 1 in SG: OTT last week, but not too far behind was Sam Ryder inside the top-15 as well.

What’s so important about that? Leading into THE PLAYERS, Ryder began to pick up steam with three top-20 finishes over his previous four starts despite not having any success with his driver. The 2.8 strokes he gained off the tee at TPC Sawgrass was his best showing in over 18 months. Ryder is the only player in the field to rank top-20 in SG: APP, Scrambling Gained, and SG: P, so if the off-the-tee improvements can stick around for another week, the rest of his game is primed to contend at the Valspar Championship.

Trey Mullinax (, $7,200)

I did not build a very long outright card this week, but I did find room for this one longshot who carries a win, five top-12 finishes, and just three missed cuts over his last 15 starts.

The Alabama native and Crimson Tide alum is likely riding the high of Alabama’s No. 1 overall seeding in March Madness. But even if he’s not, Mullinax has always proven to play his best golf on familiar Bermuda turf; all eight of his career top-8 finishes have come on Bermuda greens, with the most recent example coming two starts ago against a loaded field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. One of his other top-8 finishes came right here at the 2018 Valspar Championship, so it’s clear his game can translate to success on these grounds. Entering this week, Mullinax is one of only nine players to rank above-average in Par-5 Scoring, Prox: 175+, SG: ARG, and SG: P (Bermuda), making him an ideal profile fit for the Copperhead Course.

Michael Kim (, $6,900)

There are very few players in the $6K range on Draft Kings who are going to model well for a course as demanding as the Copperhead Course. So in desperate search for value, I abandoned the stat model and instead looked to chase the hot hand with a player trending in top immediate form.

Over the last 12 rounds, Kim ranks No. 6 in SG: TOT, and is the only $6K-priced player on Draft Kings to rank inside the top-10 over that span with finishes of T5 at the Puerto Rico Open and T11 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am within his last three starts. A nine-year veteran, Kim parlayed a hot 2022 Korn Ferry Tour season into newfound PGA TOUR membership. He’s looked solid to start this season, ranking top-50 in the field in SG: T2G, and has finished top-50 in five of his last eight starts. Those numbers aren’t inspiring enough for me to chase in the betting market, but the immediate form is still worth riding in DFS with few better alternatives available in this not-so-elevated event.

  • Join TheLines free golf betting Discord channel with more than 4,300 community members discussing sports betting 24-7-365.

Dylan Wu (, $6,800)

The lesser of two Wu’s, Dylan is doing his best to narrow the gap in the sibling rivalry with his brother Brandon, who is priced $1,600 higher on Draft Kings. I’m happy to jump on the discounted price with Dylan this week however, as he’s proven to be the more consistent ball-striker of the two over the last month, gaining in both SG: OTT and SG: APP in each of his last four starts. Over that stretch, Dylan Wu ranks No. 15 in SG: Ball Striking, highlighted by a T10 finish at the Honda Classic. Ranking top-30 in Good Drives Gained, Prox: 175+, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: P (Bermuda), Dylan actually ranks ahead of his brother Brandon in my model this week, and is one of my favorite values on the board for his price at the Valspar Championship.

Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers!

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *