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NASCAR Würth 400 long shots: Cup Series odds, predictions, picks at Dover

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Last week’s race at Talladega Superspeedway was an excellent opportunity to bet on long shots.

The unpredictability of superspeedway racing made it a great option for NASCAR bettors.

We won’t see the same uncertainty at Dover, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value on the board.

I’ve identified a few long shots for Sunday’s Cup Series Würth 400 at the Monster Mile. You can tune into FS1 at 2 p.m. ET to watch the action.

Würth 400 longshots

To win: Kyle Busch (+2000, BetMGM)

It’s hard to believe Kyle Busch was the points leader after two races. As we head to Dover, he is on the playoff cutline after a series of poor results. Can he get back on track at Dover?

Busch is a three-time winner at the Monster Mile, with his most recent triumph coming in 2017. He’s been consistent lately at Dover, finishing 11th or better in six of his last eight races.

You could argue Busch had the car to beat in the 2022 Spring race. He led a race-high 103 laps, but an untimely caution lost him track position. He could only recover to finish seventh.

Busch has shown race-winning speed in the Next-Gen car at Dover. He should be desperate to score a good finish on Sunday.

Alex Bowman top-3 finish (+550, Caesars)

Hendrick Motorsports will be tough to beat this weekend with Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott making up the race favorites. However, we can’t forget about Alex Bowman and the No. 48 Chevy.

Dover is easily Bowman’s best track, as he has five top-fives in his last six Dover starts. That stretch includes a victory in 2021.

We’ve seen him exhibit speed throughout the 2024 season with four top-five finishes, including a runner-up performance in the Daytona 500.

He might need a little help to score a top-three finish, but his speed should put him in contention throughout the race.


Daniel Suarez won at Atlanta earlier this season and finished fifth at Texas. Getty Images

Daniel Suarez top-5 finish (+1300, bet365)

Daniel Suarez is worth a flier if you’re looking for a longshot top-five pick. Suarez already has a win this season and finished fifth at Texas two weeks ago.

His Dover career began with five straight finishes of 11th or better. His recent finishes aren’t good, but they come with an asterisk.

He spun in the final 100 laps while running inside the top 15 in the 2022 race. And he was inside the top 10 early in last year’s race before hitting the wall and ending his day.

His teammate, Ross Chastain, has been one of the cars to beat in the last two Dover races. If Suarez can inherit some speed, he could be a surprise top-five contender.


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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. top-10 finish (+600, bet365)

If we remove the drafting tracks, it’s been a rough season for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He only has one top-20 finish on non-drafting tracks, but that could change at Dover.

Only two years ago, Stenhouse surprised everyone with a runner-up finish at the Monster Mile. It wasn’t a fluke finish either, as he had the seventh-best speed ranking and a ninth-place average running position.

He had a solid 15th-place finish in last year’s race after qualifying ninth. 

A good qualifying run could go a long way to a strong finish on Sunday. It would mark a second straight top-10 after finishing fourth at Talladega.

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