Once again, we have a new World No. 1, named Scottie Scheffler. Jon Rahm and Scottie have been playing such consistent golf lately, and are so evenly matched, that whenever either of them wins a tournament, which they have done 5 times in the 7 events either of them have started in this year, they reclaim the World No. 1 ranking. We basically have two guys morphing into Tiger Woods as their combined odds would ultimately sit somewhere in the 4-1.
Luckily for us, this week is not an elevated event and neither of those two bet bullies are in the field. We get a chance to try and bet somebody without the fear of Rahm or Scheffler taking our lunch money in addition to the $25 million Scheffler has won in the last 17 months. Leave our lunch money alone and let us have fun … please. Let’s dive into the betting card for the week shall we?
But before we do that, for those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a “farewell fiver,” all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord.
This week we have a rather small outright card as I truly believe that our 14-1 bet is going to win this week. We have two golfers at 14-1 and 120-1. We are spending $11.50 of our $100 on outrights, which gives us $3.50 spend on an in tournament play at 45-1 if we feel the need to splurge on one of the few stars who gets off to a slow start. Wind will play a large role in that decision as there will be periods of calm, where a golfer out of the tournament could surge up the leaderboard over a four-hour easier scoring period.
Jordan Spieth ($10.18 @ +1400 on FanDuel)
This week we need exceptional iron play and an ability to scramble for pars. The green in regulation percentage at Innisbrook is 60%, which means about 40% of the time you are going to be scrambling for par. The last two years have seen top iron-players exceed 80% GIR rates, but rumor has it rough is going to be thicker, similar to 2019 when only three golfers eclipsed 70% GIR. There are also four Par 5s, which will see a lot of second shots miss the greens, making around the green play crucial this week.
After watching the flyover of this course, it appears that most of the water is off the tee, forcing golfers to hit long irons or fairway woods to lay up. Spieth’s inaccuracy off the tee, should be less of an inhibitor here, as he will be leaning on his much-improved iron play off the tee to lay up short of the water, when needed.
Spieth’s iron play has been sensational lately, averaging +1.2 strokes on approach in his last four starts which had finishes of T6, MC, T4, and T19. He has only lost on approach once in those rounds since WM Phoenix Open. He has been particularly precise from 150-200 yards, which we will see about 40% of approach shots come from this week.
Spieth has hit 65% of his greens over those 14 rounds and gained +0.7 strokes around the greens over that period. With hardly any water around the greens this week, he has the ability to not only save par from a missed green, but potentially steal a birdie from a bunker or thick patch of cabbage alongside the green. When he has a lob wedge in his hands, he makes Houdini look like Kramer from Seinfeld.
Since leaving the west coast, Spieth has gained +0.3 strokes putting per round at the API and PLAYERS, which is very promising as that is half a stroke better than he was losing on the greens prior to his Florida arrival. We mentioned the four par 5s being crucial to banking birdies, with Spieth playing those holes 3rd-best in the field, behind only Thomas and Fitzpatrick.
We have gone into great depth about why he suits this course, but if you don’t believe all that you have read so far, would a course history of MC, T18, WIN, T20, and T7 be a bit more persuasive? Those results were from 2013-2018, but we know when he is playing well, he can find comfort around this course, whether it’s off the tee, on approach, around the greens, or on them, he has gained strokes in all four key areas in the five years he has played here.
Finally, with conditions potentially being rather windy, I love Spieth’s ability to forget swing mechanics and just hit the shot that is needed in that situation. He is one of the most naturally talented golfers we have ever seen and with the abundance of wind we will have to deal with this week, Spieth is going to be painting happy accidents all over Innisbrook on route to his second Valspar victory.
Sam Ryder ($1.32 @ +12000 on FanDuel)
Sam Ryder has missed three consecutive cuts at the Valspar Championship, which is probably why he is getting the treatment of triple digit odds, which is fine by us. Ryder has quickly become one of the best putters on tour and that is something we are hoping to capitalize on. Since the Sony Open, Sam has gained the 2nd most strokes putting on tour, behind only Maverick McNealy.
Yes, putting is a volatile stat, but considering he has not lost strokes putting since round three of the Farmers Insurance Open (15 rounds ago) there is a good chance he keeps this up. Ryder has churned out a positive putting round in 90% of the 20 rounds he has played in 2023 (with ShotLink). If winds blow as expected this week, we need somebody who can sink a few uncomfortable par putts, which he is more than capable of doing.
He may also be 120-1 because he has lost strokes on approach in 8 straight rounds. Woof. BUT, the majority of those rounds came at two courses that were littered with water around the greens, which we will not see at Innisbrook. The watery danger is off the tee, which he can navigate safely, having just gained +2.75 strokes driving last week at TPC Sawgrass. Innisbrook will provide a similar challenge off the tee, which we are confident Sam can handle in his maroon joggers that will look mighty fine hoisting a Valspar Championship trophy.
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2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units
Total Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
After basically breaking even or just losing a fraction over the last three weeks, we finally are gaining some momentum in the placement market, netting $10.15 in profit thanks to 3 of our 5 T40s cashing. Tom Kim made the cut and then finished T51, watering down the potential to really have had a good week. This week we have 8 T40’s and 4 T20’s, which will make for a really sweaty week.
Last week’s results:
- Tom Kim T40 -115 -$5.75
- Tom Hoge T40 +138 +$6.90
- Russell Henley T40 +120 +$6
- Chris Kirk T40 +120 -$5
- Adam Hadwin T40 +160 $8
This week’s bets are in green with the red names being the bets we will not place. The books are color coded in the odds column: Blue and white (Barstool), Light Blue and Black (FanDuel), Dark Green (DraftKings). We are going to be placing $6.25 on each of the T20 bets and $5 on T40 bets to total $80. We are going to be betting our full $100 this week folks!!
- Matt Fitzpatrick T20 +110
- Tommy Fleetwood T20 +150:
- Adam Hadwin T20 +150
- Robby Shelton T20 +360
- Ben Griffin T40 +100
- Joel Dahmen T40 +130
- Mark Hubbard T40 +160
- Nick Taylor T40 +130
- Eric Cole T40 +175
- Sam Ryder T40 +140 (777 value is Maniac override)
- Ben Taylor T40 +188
- Austin Eckroat T40 +355
If you are looking for my explanations for why we did or did not play each of these golfers, be sure to check out my podcast here where I go in depth into the logic behind each bet.
Tommy Fleetwood over Gary Woodland $5 @ -126
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. Last week’s matchup resulted in being a push, as Collin Morikawa landed up shooting level par for his final three rounds to end up T13, alongside Rickie Fowler.
This week we are going to roll with Tommy Fleetwood over Gary Woodland, in a battle of the Woods. Tommy Fleetwood is -126 to beat Gary Woodland this week on Barstool Sports. Tommy is not nearly as impressive on the ball striking front, but Woodland’s short game is going to be the biggest reason we are fading him this week. Especially if the wind blows.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf’s most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Sam Ryder T10 +700
The Farewell Fiver is on a roll, as we cashed our degenerate bet for an ACE on 17 last week. It happened THREE times! We should have double dipped and bet on multiple aces to happen. This week, we are really excited about Sam Ryder and after our 125-1 Tom Hoge finished T3 last week, with only a T40 to show for breaking the course record, we are going to also take Sam Ryder for a top 10 at +700. He is just putting so well, and we get to see him in a weaker field for the first time in a while. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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