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2023 Valspar Championship Picks & Live Odds: Burns Eyes Three-Peat

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Sam Burns won for the first time on the PGA Tour here at the Valspar Championship in 2021. He then successfully defended his title in 2022 and looks to make it three in a row this week. See where he stands in our Valspar Championship odds below.


Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2023 11:27 AM ET

Read Time: 4 min

The Florida Swing continues at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course for the Valspar Championship following a dominant win from Scottie Scheffler at THE PLAYERS that saw him reclaim World No. 1.

Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth are the favorites on the opening odds board, but all eyes should be on back-to-back defending champion Sam Burns, who seeks the first three-peat on the PGA Tour since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic (2009-2011). 

We break down his chances and more in our Valspar Championship betting preview below, including outright odds, free golf picks, and more. 

Live odds to win 2023 Valspar Championship

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Valspar Championship picks and predictions

Adam Hadwin over Brian Harman (-126 at FanDuel)

The Canadian is a rightful favorite here but there’s a good argument to be made that -126 isn’t enough juice. 

Yes, Harman finished T5 here last year but his track record at Copperhead is otherwise pretty forgettable. We’re looking at missed cuts in his four previous Valspar starts with his last decent finish being a T25 all the way back in 2014.

His recent form of T44-MC-MC-T42-MC-T32 doesn’t instill any confidence either. He’s lost strokes on approach in each of those six starts and hasn’t done much to make up for it elsewhere. 

Meanwhile, Hadwin is fresh off a T13 finish at TPC Sawgrass and has quietly posted Top-20 finishes in four of his last seven starts. The 2017 Valspar champ has Harman beat in just about every major statistical category and is just a few made putts away from seriously contending in this lighter field.

Ben Griffin to finish 48th or better (-120 at bet365)

Another curious line considering Griffin’s rise and the relatively light field we’re seeing at Copperhead this week.  

DataGolf had the 26-year-old American ranked 356th back in September and he’s since skyrocketed to 65th ahead of the Valspar, with his OWGR also climbing to 75th from 184th over the same span. 

A major part of that rise has been his incredible consistency – something we seldom see from rookies on the PGA Tour. He’s missed just two cuts in 14 starts and has finished inside this 48th or better threshold in eight of his last nine starts. 

Griffin will be making his debut this week but that hasn’t proved to give him any fits this season and as long as his tee-to-green game holds up (30th this season), he should have no problem finishing inside this number.  

Valspar Championship field and favorites

This week’s field has just four of the OWGR Top 20 — Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, and Matt Fitzpatrick — but that’s to be expected the week after THE PLAYERS Championship. Those four are occupying the top spots on the board and are the only ones available at better than 20/1 odds. 

The familiar American duo of Thomas (T3 last year) and Spieth (2015 winner) lead the way at +1,100 and +1,200, respectively, while back-to-back champion Sam Burns sits third at +1,600. The 26-year-old secured his first Tour victory here in 2021 and successfully defended a year ago, edging out Davis Riley in a playoff. 

Matt Fitzpatrick rounds out the top tier at +1,800. The reigning U.S. Open champion missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last week but finished T5 here a year ago with four rounds of 68 or better.

2021 runner-up Keegan Bradley (+2,500) is in the field this week, as is Davis Riley (+3,500) after falling in a playoff this time last year. Canadian Adam Hadwin is also among the favorites at +2,800 — he won the event back in 2017.

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Valspar Championship recent winners and odds history

Let’s take a look at some recent Valspar Championship winners and their closing odds to win:

Year Golfer Closing odds
2022 Sam Burns +2,000
2021 Sam Burns +6,000
2020 No event: COVID-related cancelation.  N/A
2019 Paul Casey +2,000
2018 Paul Casey +2,000
2017 Adam Hadwin +8,000
2016 Charl Schwartzel +3,000
2015 Jordan Spieth +1,200
2014 John Senden +8,000
2013 Kevin Streelman N/A
2012 Luke Donald +1,000
2011 Gary Woodland N/A
2010 Jim Furyk +1,500

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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